Don't Budge, Omar

I have rarely been one to praise Omar Minaya in recent times, but let's be honest, who has? Yet right now at this very moment, I believe he deserves the utmost credit - not for something he did, but instead for something he didn't do. According to the latest story on Metszilla the Mets are oh so close to landing prize ace Cliff Lee. So, what in the world is the problem? The problem is that it would come at the cost of Jon Niese.

And so far, Omar Minaya has refused to budge.

All year long, Minaya has been the easy target for ridicule, criticism and mockery from the likes of myself, the media, and most of the Mets faithful. The hot seat was burning, then it was burning hotter, and then...well...it was scorching. I still don't believe he assembled this team correctly. His belief in guys such as John Maine and Oliver Perez backfired. John Lackey was out there, as were others. By now you know that whole story...

That said, credit Minaya for finding (or getting lucky on, depending on your stance towards him) the likes of R.A. Dickey and Hisanori Takahashi. Also credit him for (though much belated) now pursuing a front line starter to give New York a real shot at not only the division, but much more.

Regardless of criticisms, what has supposedly transpired with regards to Cliff Lee and Jonathon Niese have at the least given me a temporary respect for Omar Minaya (after all, things can change in a heartbeat). For a guy whose job has been on the line since day one - in the media capital of the world where waiting to win is simply not an option - he has chosen to forego a possible immediate fix with the future of this wonderful franchise in mind.

And you know what? It may end up costing him his job.

If the Mets go through the trade deadline this year and don't make a move for a guy like Lee, and then proceed to fall short of the post season, Omar will likely become a footnote.

That said, Minaya is not saying "no" to Cliff Lee. Passing on Lee at the asking price of Jonathon Niese and another top prospect doesn't automatically make Cliff vanish from the Mets radar. Far from. In fact, I believe that the Mets should wait it out with Seattle and see what happens. It is entirely possible that as we move closer to the trade deadline, Cliff Lee will come at a lesser cost. It sounds illogical at first, but considering that Seattle knows they have no shot whatsoever at re-signing him this offseason, they will eventually have to take an offer from someone. Under that pressure, perhaps stubborness will subside and something will happen.

Now, let's backtrack to my original point and stance: Omar did the right thing here. Do I want to pass up Lee? Absolutely not. But, Jonathon Niese is a 23 year old lefty with an enormous upside. Cliff Lee, if he were to come to New York, would have a couple of months to try and win a World Series with the Mets, and then New York would have to then join a bidding war - one they would likely lose to the other team in town.

So, let's fix that with a sign and trade, shall we? Well, though the thought is ideal, it just ain't happenin. Cliff Lee wants to test the free agent market, and that's exactly what he will do. So, for a guy who isn't guaranteed to stay beyond 2010, why would it be worth giving up a blossoming young talent such as Niese for a guy you will probably lose after the season anyway? Even in a perfect world, where the Mets do find a way to sign Lee beyond this year, who's to say that he will be the pitcher he was as he progresses into his mid and late 30's?

Howard Megdal of NY Baseball Digest sums this stance up best:

"In essence, they’d be dealing Niese’s 24-28 seasons away for Lee’s 32-38 seasons, along with a huge difference in salary."

In my mind, that's very difficult to argue.

But, I do, very clearly see the other side to this equation. Hypothetically, with Cliff Lee on board, the Mets would be a dangerous team. A three headed monster consisting of Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, and Cliff Lee would likely make the Mets not only favorites to win the east, but the entire National League as well. It is well known that any team in the playoffs that has three aces is in real good shape to win.

But at what cost?

Try to get Lee. Try to get Haren. Try to get Oswalt. Get somebody, but get them for a lesser price than this.

For now, kudos to Omar for what was a very wise non-move.


-Tom Greenhalgh (6/17/10)