Saturday, June 5, 2010

Statistical Analysis Of Mets Lineup

By David V Matrisciano II
CONTRIBUTING WRITER

An explanation of the ratings system - David's rankings are accumulated through the statistical analysis of three different categories - team stats (a comparison of each player to the rest of their teammates), team expectation (season projections compared to career averages), and relationship to the rest of the National League (where do they rank compared to other players at their position, Elias Sports Bureau.) Final grades are on a 100 point scale.

For my One/Third report on the batting order, click here.

SS - JOSE REYES

Team Contribution - B-
Team Expectation – C+
League Rank - D- (17 NL)
Final Grade – C (74.16 average)

As we all know, baseball is cruel. Just ask Armando Galarraga. So in this Grade for Jose Reyes you may find it cruel. I understand that Jose is coming off of nearly an entire season spent on the DL. That said, he is still due almost 10 million dollars this year. Jose is doing well compared to his teammates. He has a B- in the Team Stats category (using Jose's statistical data compared to that of his teammates.) Compared to the old Jose (which would be a reference for an A+) the new Jose only gets a C+ in the Team Expectation category. I believe the Mets would like old Jose back as soon as possible. Less than 3 years ago, old Jose (This is starting to sound like tequila comparisions) was considered the best shortstop in The National League, when he started the all star game in San Francisco. However, since then, Jose has droped to number 17 in the National League based on the Elias Sports Bureau (The ESB also counts players who play duel positions). Jose needs to have a strong second half especially with regards to home runs and stolen bases.

2B - LUIS CASTILLO

Team Contribution – F
Team Expectation – C+
League Rank – B- (6 NL)
Final Grade – C- (73.00 average)

Luis Castillo often takes the blame for the bad (Last years fly ball blunder vs. the Yankees Comes to mind…). However, Luis Castillo has been one of the few shinning spots for the Mets. First and foremost, he has a team fewest 10 strikeouts, and up until today was playing through a very painful injury in his foot. However you have all heard the saying… the numbers don’t lie and in Mr. Castillo’s case, they are honest. He is last on the team in runs and hits - two very important statistics. Mr. Castillo doesn’t come close in the team contribution category, coming in with a measly 66% adjusted on a bell curve. He is the Weakest Link… Goodbye. He is also far off of his historically decent career numbers. In fact, other than RBI’s and strikeouts, Luis is lacking between 20% and 30% off of his career averages. Now you can argue… hes old, he can’t do it. However, Luis has doubled his stolen bases thus far, and will come up with 14% more RBI’s than in seasons past (not to mention cutting down strike outs by 50%.) In fact, Luis is the 6th best 2nd baseman in the National League - not bad for a position with the likes of Dan Uggla and Chase Utley. Once Luis’s foot is healed, I have reason to believe that he will be of all star caliber for the anticipated playoff run (::droping down to my knees and praying:: please release Ollie, please release Ollie...)

LF - JASON BAY

Team Contribution – A+
Team Expectation – B
League Rank – D+ (8 NL)
Final Grade – B (84.16 Average)

Fenway Park (or Pawk depending on how you say it) is like a little league field in comparison to the deep expanses of Taxpayer's Stadium. This affected Wright last year, and it is only natural that it has affected Mr. Bay this Year. However, Bay is finding other ways to keep his stats looking pretty and keeping the Coupon’s (Wilpon’s) happy. He is leading the team in runs, hits, average, and on base percentage. He is 4th on the team in RBI's behind Wright, Barajas and Francoeur. This is good, however it's not what we expected - we expected Bay to be hitting the crap out of the ball, and putting it over shea bridge twice a week. That’s what he was overpaid to do, and it's exactly what he's not done. He has 3 home runs this year, and don’t give me this balogna about how Citi is big. The Mets have played a series in Citizens Bank Park, which if the wind catches an infield pop up the right way it turns into a home run. The Mets have played half of their games in other ballparks, therefore his home run total should be higher. Period. What pisses me off even more? Lastings Millege is ranked higher than Bay (number 7 in the NL). This is embarrassing, and Bay needs to do something about this. I believe, and the rest of New York does too, that Bay is the best left fielder in baseball. Act like it.

1B - IKE DAVIS

Team Contribution – D
Team Expectation – A
League Rank – F (13 NL)
Final Grade – C (73.00 Average)

Let me start off by saying that Ike Davis is John Olerud Jr. He will develop into one of the best first basemen in the league in just a few years. However, in my opinion, he was brought up too soon. He has a very high strike out rate which hurts him in team comparisons. Ike is young. He will fix these issues, but compared with the rest of the team he is a D student (which in this case is ok because it's like putting a very smart 8th grader up against 10th graders). There will be an adjustment period… which is ok, especially since this is his first year. He has hit well and has been working with his teamates, but he is still a hair below average and I believe that in time he will develop into a great first baseman. In this particular case, League Rank counts very little in my eyes. When you have to throw a rookie in to compete with Joey Votto and Prince Albert, there is nothing even the best rookies can do about it. But mark my works, Ike will not be 13th in the league for much longer.

3B - DAVID WRIGHT

Team Contribution – B
Team Expectation – B
League Rank – C- (8 NL)
Final Grade – B – (80.83 Average)

David Wright is the unquestioned leader of the New York Mets. He is the face of the Blue and Orange. However, the Wilpons decided to land a right hook to the Face of the Mets with Taxpayers Stadium. This threw David Wright under the bus. Wright is a major contributor for New York - leading the team in RBI. He is only a few hairs behind Bay in OBP. However, he is also leading the team in strikeouts (3rd, NL). This is an ugly blemish on Mr. Wrights record. Wright needs to go back to 2006 form in which he played the gaps. He could make great use of the pinball machine in right field of Taxpayer's Stadium. Wright is completing his team expectations admirably, however needs some help in the strikeouts department and the clutch department. Just a Year ago Wright was on the allstar team. Now he is considered the 8th best 3rd baseman in the league. This can be attributed to two things - dwindling hitting numbers and great company at 3rd base in the NL. It is, other than first base, arguably the most competitive position in the league.

CF - ANGEL PAGAN

Tean Contribution – B+
Team Expectation – A+
League Rank – C (10 NL)
Final Grade – B+

Angel Pagan has exceded everyone expectation by doing one major thing - avoiding the annual trip to the DL (knock on wood.) He is a major Team Contributor behind only Mr. Bay. He is high on the lists for average, OBP, hits, runs, and fewest strikeouts. He has also been an amazing defensive centerfielder. Carlos who? He has started in the face of adversity which started with Captain Briliance bringing in Gary Matthews Jr. to start in center while Beltran made his brief stint on the disabled like til middle of may. (By the Way for those of you living under a rock, Gary Matthews Jr. is enjoying unemployment, and from what we mets fans understand, Beltran has received permission from the Mets medical staff to start peeing standing up soon, as opposed to his bed pan that he had been quite attached to.) Angel has done everything to the best of his ability. He is beating his career numbers in almost every category except strikeouts. He is well worth the money we are paying. However it is my opinion that the people over at ESPN and the ESB have blinders on and don’t give Angel much love, which is why he is ranked 10th in the NL. In my opinion, the only centerfielder who may be better is the flyin Hawaiian, Shane Victorino of the Phillies. He deserves the leagues votes, and will make himself a handsome payday at the end of the season if this continues.

C - ROD BARAJAS

Team Contribution – A
Team Expectations – A+
League Rank – C- (10 NL)
Final Grade – A- (90.08 Average)

Plan C… for Catcher features Rod Barajas. The Mets in the off season aggressively pursued Bengie Molina. However, Bengie decided that taking less money was a much better plan than coming to the Mets, and I can’t say that I disagree with him. So in the end we pulled up with Rod Barajas, for about the price of Bengie’s glove. Catcher so far has been one of the brightest spots on the Mets this year. Between Henry Blanco and Rod, not to mention Omir Santos and Josh Thole are waiting in the wings, with Omir having a proven track record last year and Thole being our catcher of the future, catcher is a bright spot. So onto the stats. Rod is in the top 10 in the MLB for homeruns and has the most on the Mets. He is one of the top contributors on this team, and he doesn’t even play every day. Rod has exceded all expectations. He is on pace to obliterate all of his career highs and has been an incredible investment for the Mets. 400,000 dollars is nothing to pay for this potential all-star. Rod has been insulted by the ESB’s ratings. Statistically speaking he is one of the best in the NL, and should be ranked higher than 10th. However people still consider the Brian McCann’s and the Yadier Molinas higher than the Rod Barajas even if statistically they don’t deserve it.

RF - JEFF FRANCOEUR

Team Contributions – B-
Team Expectations – A
League Rank – F (16 NL)
Final Grade – C+ (78.83 Average)

Frenchy's time in New York can best be described by the Katy Perry song, "Hot and Cold." He began the season on a tear. He was hot, but then he changed his mind like a girl changes clothes. He went cold, and it all went cold during 20 innings in hell, I mean St. Louis. Frenchy has been a large team contributor especially in the hits and hitting with runners in scoring position categories. However, Frenchy has mood swings. In Mets wins, he is on, and on fire. In Mets losses the Mets would probably be better off putting in the ball boy, who can probably come through for them more often. Frenchy is doing very well this year in comparison to his career numbers, which indicates that up to this point his career has been very bad. Don’t forget that the Braves decided to make an even trade for Ryan Church… the same Ryan Church who uses his head while sliding, literally. In MLB, right field is generally one of the spots in which you put your power house hitters (i.e. Babe Ruth, Roger maris, etc). Frenchy is not a power house. Personally, I say that when Carlos Beltran is done pissing in a bed pan, and can get up, stick him in right and make Frenchy ride the pine. Frenchy gets an F compared to the rest of the league, especially with Jason Heyward and Nelson Cruz destroying stats. Come the trade deadline, hope Frenchy is on a hot streak, and you can get something reasonable for him that will help in a legitamate play off race. Now most will argue that, "Hey Dave, Frenchy is the heart of the team, he brings passion.” That’s true, but I have an amazing passion for the Mets too, and you don’t see jerry knocking at my door to play on the mess.

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